The 2021 New York Mets spent over 100 days in first place and this week will play out the string for the final week of the regular season. Entering yesterday’s doubleheader sweep of the Miami Marlins, the Mets had lost 10 of 11 games, which included series sweeps by the Boston Red Sox and the Milwaukee Brewers. These not quite mediocre Mets sit in third place in the National League East and eliminated from postseason baseball, 9.5 games behind the division-leading Atlanta Braves, 13.5 games out of a Wild Card berth, and sporting a 75-82 record.

The second half of the season has exposed the Mets as being unable to run with the big dogs of MLB. The most glaring example of this fatal flaw is when the Mets locked up for two weeks versus the San Francisco Giants and Los Angeles Dodgers in August; resulting in a two-week stretch of baseball where the Mets went 2-11, lost 7 one-run games, fell from first place to third place in the NL East, and saw the ball club plummet from four games over .500 to four games under .500.

The Mets never recovered from these vicious body blows inflicted by the heavyweights of the senior circuit. As the Mets were getting mauled by these West Coast titans, Mets manager Luis Rojas made the comment that at least the Mets weren’t getting blown out.

No, the Mets weren’t getting blown out but they were exposed as a team incapable of winning against teams with more savoir faire and swagger. The Mets simply couldn’t solve the puzzle on how to beat a quality MLB team; and in stark terms, it exposed the Mets talent level as being wildly overrated.

Coming into the 2021 campaign, the Mets were expected to score runs. Based on the brief 60-game sample of the 2020 season, the Mets finished third in MLB with 551 hits. A little disconcerting was the Mets scored only 286 runs, placing them 13th in MLB and 8 runs over the mean; but there was no reason to expect the Mets to suffer from a colossal failure on offense, which is what happened in 2021.

How abysmally inadequate are the Mets at the plate? Only three teams have failed to score fewer runs than the Mets: the Pittsburgh Pirates, Texas Rangers, and Miami Marlins. Coming into last night’s doubleheader, the Mets and Marlins were both sitting at 606 runs scored on the year, and New York’s doubleheader sweep of Miami catapulted the Mets to a 613-609 season lead.

If somehow you’re of the belief that the Mets were also victimized by subpar pitching or shoddy defense, the Mets have surrendered 648 runs in 2021, which places them 10th in MLB in Fewest Runs Allowed. The nine teams ahead of the Mets have either clinched a playoff berth or are in playoff contention.

Fewest Runs Allowed Ahead of the Mets

1. Los Angeles (537)
2. San Francisco (583)
3. Milwaukee Brewers (593)
4. Chicago White Sox (625)
5. Houston Astros (631
6. Atlanta Braves (642)
7. Tampa Bay Rays (642)
8. Toronto Blue Jays (643)
9. New York Yankees (645)
10. New York Mets (648)

How did the Mets get here? How did the Mets become a collection of guys scuffling to stay above the Mendoza line?

The Mets acting general manager now on-leave (DUI arrrest), Zack Scott, attempted to solve the Mets hitting woes by firing hitting coach Chili Davis. Zack Scott was a member of the Red Sox front office when the Old Town Team bid farewell to Chili as its hitting coach. It wasn’t necessarily a huge surprise when Scott made a move, in May, to replace old school Davis and assistant hitting coach Tom Slater with new school Hugh Quattlebaum and Kevin Howard. Scott was familiar with Quattlebaum, because the Mets acting g.m. had worked with Quattlebaum’s brother, Gus, in Boston’s front office.

The Mets could have brought in the head of Ted Williams, the ghost of Charley Lau, and former Red Sox hit guru Walt Hriniak as hitting coaches – and this team was still going to struggle to score runs in 2021.

Having watched way too much of the Mets in 2021, here are the macro reasons for the Mets lack of offensive production:

1. The talent is overrated.
2. Top six hitters are having career worst years at the plate.
3. Approach at the plate
4. Pitch Selection
5. Inability to hit with men in scoring position. The Mets leave 3.2 runners in scoring position per game, which is the 8th worst in MLB.

Here are the micro reasons:

1. The much- ballyhooed Francisco Lindor has been a bust at the plate in 2021. Lindor spent most of 2021 trying to jack everything out of the park and failed miserably with that approach. The more important question: Can this guy thrive in New York? The jury is out.
2. Michael Conforto, a Scott Boras client who is in his walk year, put together a 2021 campaign that cost him millions of dollars. Conforto has hit better over the last month of the season, but has been a drain on the Mets offense. Conforto is hitting below .200 versus lefties. Conforto’s oWAR is 0.9.
3. Jeff McNeil is another Met, who in his age 29 season, put up career worst numbers. In his three previous seasons, McNeil had never hit under .300. McNeil is batting .250. McNeil has great hand-eye skills, but he needs to become much more disciplined at the plate. It’s all about pitch selection with McNeil.
4. Dominic Smith’s oWAR is -0.3. Behind or under on the fastball – Rojas has effectively benched Smith because of his continued struggles at the plate.
5. The 2021 James McCann is not the hitter he was in 2019 or 2020. The Mets may have grossly overpaid for this free agent catcher, who resembles a platoon player/backup catcher.

There is no way the Mets were going to win with key offensive performers contributing offensive numbers that were in the Mark Belanger and Mario Mendoza range. Will this change for 2022?

If it doesn’t, the Mets will again struggle to win in 2022. In fact, a shake-up may be necessary to cure the Mets struggles at the plate. Would it be a bad move to allow Michael Conforto to leave via free agency and sign Dodgers free agent Chris Taylor? Does Dom Smith have any trade value? If the Mets sign Javy Baez to play second base, is Jeff McNeil your every day left fielder or will he be moved?

The Mets have a lot of questions for 2022. And the offense is the first riddle to solve.